Originally Posted by tubamike78

This is only about an hour north of triple tree at Green River cove. I would say they absolutely made the correct decision to cancel nall. Thank you to all the fine folks at triple tree for hosting the Joe nall and I can't wait to go back next year.

Wow!

Yes we rolled out as fast as we could. Good call.

EK~

Accuweather is showing possible thunderstorms through May 30.

Originally Posted by multiman64

Good thing you don't live up here in Canada you wouldn't make through your first winter up where I live.

Born and Raised in Georgia all my live we have had 3 bad snow storms i can remember one in 83,93 and now 2017 No im not used to snow and its pretty sometimes I can do without it.

Originally Posted by fredmdbud

This was my downtown on Thursday, after several days of rain. Some towns had roads washed away, and we're still getting flood warnings.

Oh wow that is bad.

Originally Posted by tubamike78

This is only about an hour north of triple tree at Green River cove. I would say they absolutely made the correct decision to cancel nall. Thank you to all the fine folks at triple tree for hosting the Joe nall and I can't wait to go back next year.

Oh my that was a road....man good pictures from above.

I really thought it was going to be a wet week for us also but its rained one day for maybe 30 minutes is it. ive had to keep watering the yard daily.

I have never attended Joe NALL. I might come down next year for a day or two just to say I have been.
Sitting on the sidelines watching and listening to what happened this year. I believe Mr Pat made the right decision.

The safety of everyone in attendance should be his first priority. He also has the grounds to think of. If it is as awesome as everyone says (remember, I have never been) I would think that people would want to keep it that way.

I’m sure NALL isn’t the only event held at Triple Tree. Damage to the grounds during NALL could affect other events. I’m sure the staff of Triple Tree would rather lose money by canceling the event than rebuilding a flight line.

I know quite a few people who attend every year. Yes some of them spent a whole lot of cash to make the trip. For some this is a yearly vacation for them.

You can’t change the weather. It is a chance you take when holding or attending an event.

-Andrew

Ground at my home looks saturated to my untrained eye. I am about 30 min from there. Absolutely right call. Would have been a mud bath. It is raining heavily here now and has done so every day.

I live about 20 min from Triple Tree.I have lived here for 23 years,9 out of 10 times when the weather coming north from the south it splits south of here and mostly goes west and east of us,this is exactly what happened this time,flooding in Hendersonville and east of us.We got about 1 1/2" total???????????????????????Jack

Weather forecasts are just predictions based on past weather patterns.

In other words, when you hear a weather forecast, it is literally just a "BEST GUESS" as to what the weather is going to do. It is an "EDUCATED GUESS" but still a guess. The farther away the forecast, the more uncertain the forecast is.

It sucks to have to make a big weather decision based on such imperfect information.

The Joe Nall guys just had to make the most conservative decision based on imperfect Information.

Verloop storm Pukkelpop 2011 (10 min 9 sec)

Pukkelpop 2011 (seen from the Club stage) (3 min 59 sec)

Pukkelpop 2011, De Chateau (0 min 58 sec)

VRT late journaal - Ramp Pukkelpop (18-8-11) (11 min 11 sec)

5 died.

Since this incidents organizers are REQUIRED BY LAW to assign a person who maintains contact with the weather services and the person can cancel the event.

Originally Posted by fredmdbud

This was my downtown on Thursday, after several days of rain. Some towns had roads washed away, and we're still getting flood warnings.

yup, I was going to say it all went to DC

I've been in south Florida for several days and we've had storm after storm and massive amounts of rain the entire time.

I live 45minutes north of TT on the same river that flows through TT. We had about 3 inches of rain during the later part of the week and the river was about 6 times the size it is normally. The radar showed more rain in the TT area than here during that time.

I monitored the radar the whole week as I was supposed to go. It would have been a 900mi. drive for me. Friends went,got all the way there an had to turn around an drive back.. While the right decision was made, the heavy rains never materialized in Woodruff.

Originally Posted by jetpilotrich

Weather forecasts are just predictions based on past weather patterns.

In other words, when you hear a weather forecast, it is literally just a "BEST GUESS" as to what the weather is going to do. It is an "EDUCATED GUESS" but still a guess. The farther away the forecast, the more uncertain the forecast is.

It sucks to have to make a big weather decision based on such imperfect information.

The Joe Nall guys just had to make the most conservative decision based on imperfect Information.

That is very much not true at all.

While pattern recognition via past events can tune in meteorologists to a potential event, especially an anomalous event, it isn't what forecasts are based upon.

Forecasts are made via actual observations (radar, satellite, surface obs) + forecast models (that solve physical equations millions of times to simulate the potential future atmosphere) + forecaster experience.

I should also point out that the apps + weather widgets on phones have ZERO human input. They are nothing more than forecasts spit out by computers with little regard for nuance and human impact. These forecasts also promise precision (it will rain at 4:33pm) that will virtually always be incorrect. The probability that you can predict when it will rain at your location down to the minute is absolutely beyond the realm of legitimacy. More likely to be +/- 1 hour from that time.

I can guarantee you that TT consulted with professional meteorologists that explained the nuance and uncertainty behind the event rather than accuweather or weather channel. To do otherwise would be highly imprudent.

Not trying to single you out, but I just wanted to attempt to clear up a lot of misconceptions about weather and meteorologists that I see in this thread.

Originally Posted by enahs

That is very much not true at all.

While pattern recognition via past events can tune in meteorologists to a potential event, especially an anomalous event, it isn't what forecasts are based upon.

Forecasts are made via actual observations (radar, satellite, surface obs) + forecast models (that solve physical equations millions of times to simulate the potential future atmosphere) + forecaster experience.

I should also point out that the apps + weather widgets on phones have ZERO human input. They are nothing more than forecasts spit out by computers with little regard for nuance and human impact. These forecasts also promise precision (it will rain at 4:33pm) that will virtually always be incorrect. The probability that you can predict when it will rain at your location down to the minute is absolutely beyond the realm of legitimacy. More likely to be +/- 1 hour from that time.

I can guarantee you that TT consulted with professional meteorologists that explained the nuance and uncertainty behind the event rather than accuweather or weather channel. To do otherwise would be highly imprudent.

Not trying to single you out, but I just wanted to attempt to clear up a lot of misconceptions about weather and meteorologists that I see in this thread.

Actually, you just reinforced what i said in more technical terms

The equations you speak of are derived from past weather patterns.... I'm sure TT consulted with professional HUMAN Meteorologists who gave their "best educated guess" based on what the computers were PREDICTING & their own experiences.

While the Computer Guess was wrong, the Human Meteorologists were wrong, & the TT people were wrong, they made the right decision based on less than perfect Predictions.

A forecast is a statment about a future event based on experience and knowledge of the past.... it is a "Best Guess"