Trumps screws over the economy - Steel Tariffs on the entire world - RC Groups
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Mar 01, 2018, 12:56 PM
whiirrrrrr
srt8madness's Avatar
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Trumps screws over the economy - Steel Tariffs on the entire world


He announced today a 25% tariff on all steel imports and 10% on all aluminum imports. Not based on fact or reality, strictly from what his big business buddies told him, and what almost all of his advisers and economist recommended against. He literally sat there flanked by two CEO's lying their asses off that they "just want a fair playing field". Keep in mind I called my local steel mill last week to try to book 1,000tons of domestic material, but couldn't, because they are ALREADY at capacity. They already control the market price along with the other few mills in a oligarchical way. Import steel is the only thing that keeps them honest.

To be clear, even the cooked up numbers Wilbur Ross came up with weren't this high. I tried to deny it at first, but Trump is a puppet. Not of Putin, but whoever wants to have their hand up his ass that day. Today it was the steel industry CEOs. He had previously delayed his announcement today due to incredible opposition within the Whitehouse and Republican congresspeople. Then the Big Wigs showed up, kissed the ring, and got more than they ever asked for. They will be partying tonight, that's for sure.

This unilateral, baseless move will lead to a few things

1. Record profits for domestic mills (Nucor made around $1 billion in profit last year)

2. Around 5,000 jobs could be created

3. Around 50,000 jobs will be lost in the steel and manufacturing sector alone. (Low estimate, as steel imports support some 1.7 million jobs directly).

4. Steel prices in the US will rise by at least 25%. Imagine all of the everyday products we use that have metal in them.

5. China, Mexico, Canada, the EU, Turkey, Russia will retaliate with punitive measures of their own against US goods. Examples are US exports of steel, scrap, soybeans, bourbon, Harley motorcycles, other agricultural products. These measures will hurt US producers in a bad way.

6. This could (will) also harm alliances with countries like Turkey, where we have a big airbase. They buy our scrap, we buy their steel. It is already the definition of "reciprocal" and "fair" Trump kept bitching about. Look for that to come up as an issue.

7. Trump's infrastructure plan is unfeasible now. Not many contractors/construction companies are going to build when a major component of building costs are artificially 25% too high.

8. If a trade war develops, look for inflation and cracks in the economy, they will be close behind.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/01/b...p-tariffs.html

I doubt this will stand for much more than a year, but that may be too long for many of us in the business, who live in America, spend our money in America, and employ other Americans. It's a sad day.
Last edited by srt8madness; Mar 01, 2018 at 01:30 PM.
Mar 01, 2018, 01:14 PM
whiirrrrrr
srt8madness's Avatar
The DOW is down 500 on the news......
Mar 01, 2018, 01:37 PM
Registered User
Deadstick 8409's Avatar
How could he build his buildings with domestic steel now?
Mar 01, 2018, 02:03 PM
Registered User
If steel prices go up, fertilizer prices will go up, food prices will go up.
Mar 01, 2018, 02:05 PM
The higher the fewer.
BE77 Pilot's Avatar
Trump needs to remember, "It's the economy stupid!"

If he screws up the stock market I'll turn on him like a Pit Bull in the living room.

That's a new saying, you can quote me.
Mar 01, 2018, 02:10 PM
Registered User
Oh, who knows what will happen but not that long ago President Obama placed tariffs on steel imports. The economy continued to do well. I believe before President Obama, President Bush did similar. The economy didn't crash as a result. I'm guessing today is either an over reaction from Wall Street to the news, or possibly the good news out this morning on disposable wages being up and jobless claims being down I think it was has some traders spooked.
Mar 01, 2018, 03:18 PM
Registered User
ambientech's Avatar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cherryplum
Oh, who knows what will happen but not that long ago President Obama placed tariffs on steel imports. The economy continued to do well. I believe before President Obama, President Bush did similar. The economy didn't crash as a result. I'm guessing today is either an over reaction from Wall Street to the news, or possibly the good news out this morning on disposable wages being up and jobless claims being down I think it was has some traders spooked.
I know when Bush did it a lot of people lost their jobs.The tariff was o nlybin place a year because it was bad for the economy
Mar 01, 2018, 03:30 PM
Registered User
US citizens pay for tariffs when they buy products.
However..., China, for example, is intentionally destroying the US steel industry (and other industries), in its' effort to weaken America.
That is a wholly different scenario than simply the subject of tarriffs.
Trump is looking farther ahead than simply tarriffs.
America can not be without its' own steel industry, or an aluminum industry.
China can pay its' workers whatever..., so a competitive country, such as the US, hasn't got a chance.
That difference AND motive has to be recognized.

SBSAM
Mar 01, 2018, 03:41 PM
Epoxy & CA Investor
DenverJayhawk's Avatar
but at least you got those SCOTUS nominations
Mar 01, 2018, 03:41 PM
Registered User
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScratchBuildrSAM
US citizens pay for tariffs when they buy products.
However..., China, for example, is intentionally destroying the US steel industry (and other industries), in its' effort to weaken America.
That is a wholly different scenario than simply the subject of tarriffs.
Trump is looking farther ahead than simply tarriffs.
America can not be without its' own steel industry, or an aluminum industry.
China can pay its' workers whatever..., so a competitive country, such as the US, hasn't got a chance.
That difference AND motive has to be recognized.

SBSAM
Did you read the OP? Steel mills are running 24/7 at 100% of capacity now. They are NOT hurting!
Mar 01, 2018, 03:46 PM
Registered User
The sky is falling the sky is falling...neocon heads exploding...Bill Krystol has a coronary etc etc etc... .
Mar 01, 2018, 03:54 PM
Registered User
Perhaps now i'll be able to get me some leafs and shackle straps that don't look like they came out a gumball dispencer...
Mar 01, 2018, 04:00 PM
It's 5 O'clock Somewhere
RumRunner_1492's Avatar
Do other countries charge tariffs on our steal exports? Are they manipulating their currency to undercut our manufacturers?

On the surface it doesn't sound like a great idea but I would like to see the details.
Mar 01, 2018, 04:09 PM
The QuadFather
propflux01's Avatar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sonny McGhee
Did you read the OP? Steel mills are running 24/7 at 100% of capacity now. They are NOT hurting!
When you only have a few steel mills, VS loads of import steel rolling in to make up a difference, of course your going to be at 100% capacity. I see where he is going with this, now whether it works or not remains to be seen, as it will work one of two ways: Either it will boost domestic production by meeting the demand of steel no longer imported due to tarrifs, thereby creating more mills and in turn, more jobs. Or it will go south, creating an artificial high price because the mills aren't willing to build more mills, etc.
It worked very well for the energy sector, as the US was always so dependent on foreign oil. Now, because of the chance to boom was jumped on, instead of just pocketing artificially high prices, the energy industry expanded, and now has America as the largest producer of energy products.
We get hammered by unfair trade deals like no tomorrow. Everytime you order something from China, your using one unfair trade because China can send mail for domestic cost, the Post Office takes the rest of the cost up. What does that do for us? What does that do for China? America used to be the largest steel producer in the world. Now it is only a shadow of itself. It will be a waiting game to see the results-bad or good.
Mar 01, 2018, 05:34 PM
It's 5 O'clock Somewhere
RumRunner_1492's Avatar
It seems the commerce secretary had two investigations on the subject and deemed our steel industry a national security issue. He recommended actions like tariffs to cut back on imports.


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