View Poll Results: Do you think drone delivery will catch on with the American public?
Yes, Americans are lazy and want everything right away. 6 13.04%
No, Americans are too cheap, it will be a fad for a little while and then die away. 19 41.30%
It depends on the area. 21 45.65%
Voters: 46. You may not vote on this poll

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Dec 28, 2017, 05:02 PM
DJO
DJO
"Yo, that's a thermal"
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Poll

Do you think drone delivery will actually catch on?


Hello fellow modelers,
With all this debate about drone delivery and the demand by large corporations to control model aircraft in the airspace (Amazon in particular), I wanted to poll the users here as to what your thoughts are on the legitimacy of the "drone delivery" uprising: do you actually think this will catch on?

My perspective is essentially split right down the middle and that's why I want to hear yours.

I think there will be an initial spike of interest when drone deliveries start going more and more public, and some people will pay extra just for the cool factor of having a drone drop something off for then. After that, I can't see Americans spending extra money just for the drone, unless in the case of an emergency item (medication or something ordered too late). I think the initial "cool / futuristic" factor will die off, and people will go back to the free 2-day shipping option that Amazon Prime gives us anyways.

It seems like there are so many variables here that may not suit all of the people who want to get their stuff by drone. It needs to be a clear day, during regular business hours, and the order must be relatively small in size and weight, that is needed right away and is not within a few minutes' drive to the store, as that would defeat the purpose of paying for the drone. These seem to be tough conditions to fill for most of the days, times, and things that I order, but maybe it's just me.

Thoughts?

Dan
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Dec 28, 2017, 05:24 PM
Suspended Account
I think there are too many questions and variables right now for it to succeed anytime in the near future.

That said, my first question is just how do they intend to manage/control the delivery process? I read at one point where Amazon was going to drive a truck around and the drone was going to fly from the truck to cover that last 1/4 mile from road to door in rural America. The savings coming from the truck being able to follow a more economical route. I don't really believe it either.

The other method for Amazon is a central Hive for all the drones servicing a city. Or part of one. And the drones can deliver to anything within 20 miles or so.

Regardless, I need to order another box of shells. Just to stock up don't you know!
Dec 28, 2017, 08:04 PM
Registered User
Only when a damn drone delivers my $274 value of Omaha Steaks for only $59.99 to my front door, I'll be a believer. meanwhile I'll survive on this popcorn.
Dec 28, 2017, 08:29 PM
Registered User
Nope, wait and see what happens when they try to claim the sky for themselves by forcing modelers to limited spots then throw their drones up. I see a massive amount of amazon drones shot down and can't wait to see it. They will realize very quickly that they are going to loose money like crazy. Real life drone wars, can't wait to see it happen.
Dec 28, 2017, 08:43 PM
Registered User
Beerwiser's Avatar
Just don't shoot down the drone delivering my ass wipe..... Honestly how many items would be available for delivery by air due to size and weight and be needed bad enough that you need a drone?
Dec 28, 2017, 08:56 PM
Registered User
...
Dec 28, 2017, 11:31 PM
Registered User
Atomic Skull's Avatar
You should add "No, the technology is not mature enough yet and will not be for decades"
Dec 29, 2017, 12:35 AM
DJO
DJO
"Yo, that's a thermal"
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atomic Skull
You should add "No, the technology is not mature enough yet and will not be for decades"
Well this is more of a general question, no matter the "when" it happens, HOW will the public react anyways?

But in reality you're probably correct
Dec 29, 2017, 05:57 AM
"FPV LongRanger"
skycopter's Avatar
This will never happen to many variables weather distance battery life....oh if one hits me I will own amazon also mad modelers will shoot them down and beat them with ball bats for stealing their airspace...I think they will try it but it will not be practical....
Dec 29, 2017, 07:26 AM
Culper Junior
http://www.thedrive.com/aerial/12873...in-prison-yard

Depends on where you are delivering to.
Dec 29, 2017, 07:31 AM
Registered User
atreis's Avatar
I don't think it will catch on in my area, although there could be the odd occasional use. Drones (quads) are not especially efficient, and the population density is too low. I could see it being used in place of courier services (e.g. bike couriers) that are used in the central business districts of some big cities though (e.g NY, Philadelphia, Boston).
Dec 29, 2017, 09:50 AM
Registered User
There are numerous serious issues that come to mind when considering implementing delivery drones into the national airspace:

1. Current sensing technology is not dependable and reliable enough, to ensure a truly unmanned, autonomous drone, can fly from a warehouse to a home, navigate around trees and drop a package. I can see this being argued, but the rate of failure is most likely too high. If you add a manned aspect to the mission and make it a remote piloted, BVLOS flight, you now eliminate the return on investment that these companies like Amazon are looking for.

2. The required battery, if the system is electric, would have to be fairly large in order to power rotors that can carry the weight of a package and fly from an originating point to the delivery point. If this is a Lipo battery, the safety risks increase considerably. What happens if one of these crash on the roof of a house and the lipo fails?

3. ROI - Like KMK001 said I am not sure I see how this idea will play out. If you look at the recent reports of the Amazon delivery drivers, who are so busy they have to pee in bottles in order to meet their 200 delivery per day quota, I am not sure how using drones will help. Imagine either option, a "hive" where drones leave from to make local deliveries or a truck that stops and drones fly out, making that last 1/4 mile of delivery stops. The current level of total weight (drone/cargo) to flight time, is not reasonable to make this number of deliveries.

There will always have to be a person ready to retrieve drones that have issues, possibly be controlling them as RPIC's, which eliminates the ROI, etc. As of this current time, I do not see it being a feasible option, that will be worth the cost. I am sure companies will continue to experiment and develop in that field, but until we have more efficient power systems and more efficient batteries, we won't be seeing large-scale drone delivery.
Dec 29, 2017, 11:20 AM
Registered User
Beerwiser's Avatar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Atomic Skull
You should add "No, the technology is not mature enough yet and will not be for decades"
I would not say decades, look at how cell phones evolved in 10 years. I think the tech aspect will be ready within one decade or less.
Dec 29, 2017, 11:51 AM
Flying R/C since 1964
kallend's Avatar
Quote:
Originally Posted by atreis
I don't think it will catch on in my area, although there could be the odd occasional use. Drones (quads) are not especially efficient, and the population density is too low. I could see it being used in place of courier services (e.g. bike couriers) that are used in the central business districts of some big cities though (e.g NY, Philadelphia, Boston).
Too many trees and overhead lines where I live (power, cable, phone...). I can't see it happening
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Dec 29, 2017, 12:17 PM
Registered User
The entire idea is just a pipe dream, like Elon Musk's electric semi trucks.
When you really think about it, the technology is not there and won't be for a long time.
If all this was some plan by the technocrats to scare the hobbyists away, it obviously didn't work.


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