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Jul 07, 2014, 01:03 PM
Team Hello Kitty
SoaringDude's Avatar

Long term weather (and drought) forecasts for CA

I'm sharing a recent discovery of the California Weather Blog that gives detailed long range weather (and drought) updates for California. The site is run by a Stanford atmospheric sciences PhD candidate who clearly knows his stuff.

The blog is technical so don't expect simple conclusions to jump right out at you. However, he does give his opinions backed up with solid data so be patient when you read his updates. Since El Nino ocean warming measurements and trends factor heavily into rainy season models you may want to read this post first: it contains an excellent description of what El Nino is and how it affects California weather and rainfall.

Chris B.
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Jul 28, 2014, 10:23 PM
E sailplane thermal hack
So what exactly are you trying to say here Chris???

Ps edit : I read the blogs,, basically saying we aren't quite exactly sure what the heck is going to happen.
I remember quite a few years ago some super computer models of Global warming effects on different areas predicted Calif would experience periods of extreme drought alternating with extreme rainfall,,, that was about 20 years ago ,,, isn't that somewhat in a vague way what were seeing??
Jul 28, 2014, 11:20 PM
Detroit 2-stroke junkie
1320fastback's Avatar
Periods of extreme drought and then extreme rainfall have been happening since the beginning of time. Sun spots play a huge role in not only the earths temperature but other planets as well. Historically California has been a desert, their is nothing man kind can do to change that fact. Yes we can plant grass and build mini malls but it doesn't mean we will have the water necessary to sustain them just because we put them their.

Not even Al Gore himself could convince my that my gas guzzling classic mustang is what's responsible for melting the ice caps on MARS!!!
Jul 28, 2014, 11:26 PM
Team Hello Kitty
SoaringDude's Avatar
Hi Jerry,

I shared this blog site because I figured there might be a few club members that have to watch the water situation closely like my family does. The drought in the Central Valley is critical now. Growers down there are pumping their groundwater out for irrigation so much now that the ground level itself is dropping significantly.

If we have one more dry season we'll start feeling the effects up here too. The fact that last Winter was the warmest on record, and that 2014 is the warmest year on record to date, is not helping confidence in what could be coming. No way to know if/when SVSS well water will ever be impacted. Fingers crossed...

Jul 28, 2014, 11:33 PM
Detroit 2-stroke junkie
1320fastback's Avatar
I've watched Lake Success drop lower and lower every time I visit my pops.

Theirs probably a few dead fish in a puddle their now.

I heard that 80% of all water in California goes to farming. Is this correct?
Jul 28, 2014, 11:42 PM
Team Hello Kitty
SoaringDude's Avatar
Hi Jason, not sure what % of water in CA is used for irrigation but it's quite a bit. You're right about rain and dry season cycles having happened before but we could be heading into new territory with the climate warming up (and no, I don't believe it's caused by man-made CO2).

Anyway, since weather is not my forte I'm glad I finally found a site that is authored by an exceptionally smart atmospheric dude.
Jul 28, 2014, 11:57 PM
Detroit 2-stroke junkie
1320fastback's Avatar
This is from a local news casters blog. He is now retired and oh yeah, he was the co-founder of The Weather Channel

"How about the current California Drought?

Am I worried about it? Not really. Droughts come and go and there is always lots of screaming, but still I just can’t get excited. Here is what I know for sure. Droughts are a very regular event in California. They occur on a regular basis as rainfall fades out in La Nina periods and then return in abundance during El Ninos. The “normal” climate of California is semi-arid to desert. The idea that nature will supply adequate water for our farms and cities wih almost 40 million people living in this climate is silly. The harnessing of the Sierra snow melt and Rockies snow melt via the Colorado river has brought the available to water to almost adequate in our best years, but is far short of making water plentiful. Desalination is a promising answer as technology improves. Meanwhile I keep looking at the very ample rains that regularly fall just to the north of California in Oregon where millions and millions of gallons of rainwater is allowed to run off into the Pacific Ocean every year. Why haven’t we harnessed some of that for California? Let’s make a deal.

The worst droughts in the history of the United States occurred during the 1930s and 1950s, periods of time known as ‘Dust Bowl’ years in which droughts lead to significant economic damages and social changes. In particular, relief and health agencies became overburdened and many local community banks had to close.

When California suffered a severe drought from 1985 to 1991, a California company, Sun Belt Water Inc. was established for the purpose importing water from Canada in marine transport vessels formerly used for oil transport and converted to water carriers.

Drought apparently struck what is now the American Southwest back in the 13th century, which may have affected the Pueblo cities, and tree rings also document drought in the lower and central Mississippi River basin between the 14th and 16th century. The droughts of that period may have contributed to the decline and fall of the Mississippian cultures

The 1870-1877 drought brought with it a major swarm of Rocky Mountain Locusts, as droughts benefit locusts, making plants more nutritious and edible to locusts and reducing diseases that harm locusts.

Drought began in the Southwestern United States in 1944 and continued through the entire rest of the decade; one of the longest recorded droughts observed there. This drought continued into the 1950s

Short term droughts hit particular spots of the United States during 1976 and 1977. California’s statewide snowpack reached an all-time low in 1977. Water resources and agriculture (especially livestock) suffered; negatively impacting the nation’s economy. This drought reversed itself completely the following year.

The Western United States experienced a lengthy drought in the late 1980s. California endured one of its longest droughts ever observed, from late 1986 through early 1991.

But, you may ask, is this current drought the new normal as a result of global warming/climate change? No, I answer with total confidence. There is no know/provable causation between the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels and our dry/hot weather. Let me point out that they put of a lot of CO2 in the atmosphere in Chicago and New York, yet flooding rains and record setting cold July temperatures have been occurring in both of those major eastern cities."

Like him I have a hard time getting excited about this drought or the reporting of it. In time and on its own time it will reverse and once again we will all be swearing at our lawns for growing so fast or complaining to the kids about tracking mud in the house.
Jul 29, 2014, 12:35 AM
Team Hello Kitty
SoaringDude's Avatar
Originally Posted by 1320fastback
Like him I have a hard time getting excited about this drought..
Then you're in a fortunate position! There are some of us that can't easily just ride out an extended drought. In any case it's good sharing views.
Jul 29, 2014, 05:29 PM
E sailplane thermal hack
Hopefully your right,, not all climate scientists share this view
Jul 31, 2014, 07:29 AM
E sailplane thermal hack
If the Local newscasters blog your talking about is Anthony Watts,, he very widely known as a big idiot :-O
Jul 31, 2014, 08:24 AM
Detroit 2-stroke junkie
1320fastback's Avatar
No it is John Coleman, and Chino area is not local to me
Last edited by 1320fastback; Jul 31, 2014 at 08:45 AM.

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