Thread Tools
Sep 16, 2009, 12:31 PM
It's gonna be YUGE!!!
LVsoaring's Avatar
Thread OP
Discussion

Recession "very likely" over


Fed Chmn Bernanke says the recession is very likely over. There are a lot of you guys out there much smarter than me about economics and our economy. Do you agree with Bernanke, or is this just spin to put a happy face on a bad situation? And why or why not do you agree or disagree?

I have my own intuitive and uneducated thoughts on the matter, but I am starting this discussion hopefully to learn more about it from the folks here.
Sep 16, 2009, 12:37 PM
Alarm Bells Softening!
Big Foot 48's Avatar
Wow, and we didn't even spend 95% of the critical $787 Stimulus Slushfund! Amazing how recessions ALWAYS end, even if government does little or nothing.

Memo to Obama: Freeze spending on the Stimulus make-work projects now, and save us the future $100 million A DAY in interest that its going to cost us.
Sep 16, 2009, 12:40 PM
AustinTatious
AustinTatious's Avatar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Foot 48
Wow, and we didn't even spend 95% of the critical $787 Stimulus Slushfund! Amazing how recessions ALWAYS end, even if government does little or nothing.

Memo to Obama: Freeze spending on the Stimulus make-work projects now, and save us the future $100 million A DAY in interest that its going to cost us.
ZING!
Sep 16, 2009, 12:49 PM
Thanks for the Fish!
aerogel's Avatar
Itís global we just havenít start throwing things yet. Well in our case shooting.
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2009/se...tuce-s15.shtml
Sep 16, 2009, 12:53 PM
Registered User
mikefast's Avatar
They were talking about this on FOX news last night. This is what they said. To be in a recession, you have to have two consecutive quarters of negative growth. To be over a recession, you have to have two consecutive quarters of positive growth. We haven't even had one quarter of positive growth yet. So, the worst if probably over, but most people are still expecting unemployment to go up into next year.
So I guess your guess about the recession being over is as good as the next person.
Sep 16, 2009, 12:54 PM
I'm Kind of a Big Deal
Tarpon Shawn's Avatar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Foot 48
Wow, and we didn't even spend 95% of the critical $787 Stimulus Slushfund! Amazing how recessions ALWAYS end, even if government does little or nothing.

Memo to Obama: Freeze spending on the Stimulus make-work projects now, and save us the future $100 million A DAY in interest that its going to cost us.
Nope. Just hold the money until just before the next election. Then spend like drunken congressmen.
--------------------------------
If the recession is over I haven't seen it in my inudustry. I'll start seeing plans for large project that are 6-12 months out and I have seen no change in the private sector. Utility companies are spending money on construction upgrades, but even the local govts are playing hard to get.
Sep 16, 2009, 01:04 PM
Out of Time
I get a kick out of the repeated attempts to spin the economy better.
In fact, I've made some nice day-trading plays on them.

If you reflect on it, you'll realize that every couple of weeks, we get a positive spin on things which is when I sell.
Then within a couple of days, there's typically some accurate (and negative) information released that puts things back on a downward trend.
I let that go on for a couple of weeks or so and then buy back in, waiting for the next spin cycle at which time I sell again.

The bad news is that we are headed for another BIG crash again, probably next year if even that far away.
Because of that, I don't go in heavy, but it's fun while it lasts.
Sep 16, 2009, 01:11 PM
Registered User
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tarpon Shawn
Nope. Just hold the money until just before the next election. Then spend like drunken congressmen.
--------------------------------
If the recession is over I haven't seen it in my inudustry. I'll start seeing plans for large project that are 6-12 months out and I have seen no change in the private sector. Utility companies are spending money on construction upgrades, but even the local govts are playing hard to get.
The recession will be over when consumer confidence returns, in order to move out of recession you have to have growth, growth is measured in spending, right now to have spending it must come from the average consumer and business, business is not spending because it has this Obama Health Care threat hanging over it's head as well as the threat of new and higher taxes.
And consumers can't spend until they get back to work, guess whe that will be, right, when business starts spending again.

If you want to get rid of the financial crisis, get rid of the socialist /liberals who caused it in the first place, and nutter the Obama socialist agenda, it's that simple.
Sep 16, 2009, 01:20 PM
E-flyer since 1981
Michael in Toronto's Avatar
So the recession is over.

Spending has declined from a good to horrible.

Employment has declined gone from good to horrible.

Now we're stable (no longer going down) at horrible.

Until people are employed and spending again, I'm not ready to celebrate.
Sep 16, 2009, 01:49 PM
Suspended Account
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Foot 48
Wow, and we didn't even spend 95% of the critical $787 Stimulus Slushfund! Amazing how recessions ALWAYS end, even if government does little or nothing.

Memo to Obama: Freeze spending on the Stimulus make-work projects now, and save us the future $100 million A DAY in interest that its going to cost us.

No...allow projects currently underway to be completed and the phase the program out.

If frozen now most of PA and OH would be left in tatters. On my way to MN last week it seemed EVERY bridge was under construction on the PA turnpike and I-80.
Sep 16, 2009, 01:53 PM
Suspended Account
PS - When the Fed declares a recession over it simply means the corporate credit market is now liquid and there does not seem to be any widespread tendency to withhold loans.

Now that companies can get the short and long-term credit required to fund projects, hiring will eventually pick back up. Keep in mind though that the US economy is a machine with Trillions of moving parts. Just 'cause the first 100,000 parts are now moving doesn't mean squat. We're in for a long wait to see everything perk back up.

Double digit unemployment will still be with us through early 2011.
Sep 16, 2009, 02:07 PM
Random Pic #23982
Indiana_Geoff's Avatar
Quote:
Originally Posted by LVsoaring
Fed Chmn Bernanke says the recession is very likely over. There are a lot of you guys out there much smarter than me about economics and our economy. Do you agree with Bernanke, or is this just spin to put a happy face on a bad situation? And why or why not do you agree or disagree?

I have my own intuitive and uneducated thoughts on the matter, but I am starting this discussion hopefully to learn more about it from the folks here.
We are going to come out soon. We will muddle along for a period of time (probably 1 or 2 years) then go back into recession. The big question is how bad will the next one be.

Business are not going to grow significantly until all the uncertainty created by Obama is resolved. Then it will get worse (or better if Obama wakes up).
Sep 16, 2009, 04:40 PM
Registered User
I think this recession will be around for several more years (certainly from an unemployment aspect)

There are other long-term trends that I'm more worried about:

Lack of innovation outside the internet-based industries;

we haven't discovered any fundamentally new energy sources since the fission reactor

new materials seem to be taking longer and longer to find useful applications. This either means that the scientists are WAY out in left field, or the rest of us aren't imaginative enough to figure out how to USE these new materials.

There is little further impetus to make road vehicles more streamlined. The Chrysler LX cars and even such "game-changers" like the new Ford Taurus are LESS streamlined than their forebears. The knowledge to make far more streamlined vehicles has existed for over 80 years, let's use it more!

Education is also too much the same; we sit in classrooms listening to lectures to prepare us for tests, much as was done for the last 150 years. The new technologies coming out are so advanced that these lectures simply aren't enough. Let me get my hands dirty on some of this new, cool stuff!

Too many useless gen-ed classes in college. I will likely be going into the job market knowing how to do differential equations, but with marginal CAD/CAM skills. This is perhaps more of a poor showing on myself (and my school's class choices and requirements), versus our university systems in general.

DISCLAIMER: I am a college student, partly to blame for the above issues

We haven't figured out a way to make general exercise and fitness(including food choices) enough of a priority to dent our obesity and healthcare issues.

Likewise, getting kids excited about the math and science that makes their cars, computers, and iPods a reality is darn difficult-we're too busy using our cars, computers and iPods!

Too much emphasis on sophisticated money-shuffling schemes and industries (what were "derivatives" again, and why are they better than investing in materials and energy research?)

I think it's our collective lack of AMBITION that's causing our current problems

"Why exercise or eat decently, my healthcare coverage will take care of me instead!"

"Why strive to follow through on a good idea of mine, when I can flip a house on some over-eager buyer?"

There are several things that can lead us on an upward path if we choose to invest in them through the application of hard work:

Energy, materials, information, integrity, and personal health. The situation is far from hopeless, we just gotta get our hands out of the air and put down the white flags

END OF RANT (my apologies for the poor editing above, gotta get going on some school work now...)
Sep 16, 2009, 04:45 PM
UN Earth peoples true enemy
treehog's Avatar
Fed Chairman Bernanke says the recession is very likely over is like the bank robber telling the hostages that he is the good guy doing them a favour spreading cash back into the system so to help society sorta like a Robin Hood.

Realty check the Federal bank is private bank owned mostly by European bankers.These guys print money from thin air using FIAT money on the Usary system were the victims are nearly always kept in dept .

Did you know the word morgage in Latin means DEATH GRIP.

Until the Federal bank is replaced by a real USA currency that the Congress should make a the job which the Congress illegally franchised out to the private federal Bank in 1913 then the USA will alway be in a series of booms and busts .
Then with each bust enriching the richest it will reach a point that eventually only a few hundred people in the USA will end up owning everything in the USA .
The rest of the 300 million peoples in the USA will be reduced to a slave type share croppers lifestyle working for peanuts .
if you want to know the real story why this bust is here to rob the peoples of work and wealth listen to the Internet radio station CRASH at www.hearitonline.com on the GCNLIVE network www.gcnlive.com.
Then from that info that station supplies it show clearly that all booms and busts are planned well in advnce and high unemployemnt is part of the scam to rob the peoples of thier wealth .
Worse each bust will be deeper than the bust before it and will take longer to exit from also.
CRASH also explains why the USA dollar is now really only worth a few cents in real terms compared to when the USA dollar started in 1913 with the illegal federal reserve act .Also it explains why the USA dollar is due to shortly to become worth absolutly nothing nada with the new monertrizing scam the FED is doing presently.The USA dollar is so hitting the buffers he USA tresury cannot find anybody stupid eneogh in the planet to buy the USA treasury bills or T_BILLS sales are NADA That means the USA dollar is extremly close to dead .

Another show on GCN live the radio liberty show 14th september www.radioliberty.com states that a USA person he knows living in China cannot now get Chinese Shopkeepers to accept the $100 bills or Amercan express cards. It seems the Chinese have twigged already the USA dollar is DOA
In that show it also points out that Gold sales cant be met and the USA cant honor it gold return commitments with real gold so looks like Fort Knox has been cleaned out a few years back and the proverbial is about to hit the fan

Needless to say the illegal Federal bank Owners bandits will have made thier getaway with the loot leaving the USA taxpayers picking up the tab for 100 years or more to come

Ralf
Last edited by treehog; Sep 16, 2009 at 05:14 PM.
Sep 16, 2009, 04:48 PM
Time for me to Fly...
Mr. Wiz's Avatar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flyingwingbat1

I think it's our collective lack of AMBITION that's causing our current problems
Bingo! I've been saying the very same thing for several years now but nobody ever responds. Nobody in this country wants to work. They all want high paying cushy jobs instead. When we get that problem solved everything else will fall into place.
Latest blog entry: Something old is new again


Quick Reply
Message:

Thread Tools

Similar Threads
Category Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Discussion Very COOL - Over TEL-AVIV - Pic & Video ( my new cam ) guyg Aerial Photography 6 Jul 18, 2008 03:24 PM