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Old Jun 01, 2006, 10:38 AM
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Third Party....

I thought this was a good opinion piece...

http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/pnoonan/

Something's happening. I have a feeling we're at some new beginning, that a big breakup's coming, and that though it isn't and will not be immediately apparent, we'll someday look back on this era as the time when a shift began.

All my adult life, people have been saying that the two-party system is ending, that the Democrats' and Republicans' control of political power in America is winding down. According to the traditional critique, the two parties no longer offer the people the choice they want and deserve. Sometimes it's said they are too much alike--Tweedledum and Tweedledee. Sometimes it's said they're too polarizing--too red and too blue for a nation in which many see things through purple glasses.

In 1992 Ross Perot looked like the breakthrough, the man who would make third parties a reality. He destabilized the Republicans and then destabilized himself. By the end of his campaign he seemed to be the crazy old aunt in the attic.

The Perot experience seemed to put an end to third-party fever. But I think it's coming back, I think it's going to grow, and I think the force behind it is unique in our history.

... follow link for all of it.
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Old Jun 01, 2006, 10:53 AM
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it's been a long time coming !

http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/ksgpress/...rch_side_a.htm

Peter
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Old Jun 01, 2006, 11:54 AM
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Let’s see. Teddy Roosevelt ran on the Bull Moose ticket in 1912 and I received more votes than Taft.
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Old Jun 01, 2006, 12:21 PM
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I love Peggy and she often has her hand on the pulse of the nation.

I agree with her piece. Neither party had proven to be worthy of it's supporters.
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Old Jun 01, 2006, 01:16 PM
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The problem is not that the two parties are polarized. In many ways they're closer than ever. The problem is that the parties in Washington, and the people on the ground in America, are polarized.
BINGO!!!! We have a winner...

I do think a “context shift” is underway.


Bob
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Old Jun 01, 2006, 01:21 PM
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It comes down to money and connections. Any third party that doesn't have those in spades isn't going anywhere. I helped out when a friend tried to run against an incumbent (with a large political machine) for county treasurer. We were told we'd need at least $US500,000 to mount a good campaign just for THAT, and it would be even money odds even so. She didn't win.
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Old Jun 01, 2006, 01:36 PM
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At this point, I'd guess it would only take a few candidates that get traction, to cause a voter momentum shift. Perot almost did it.

The media will run wild with it... feed more fuel to the fire... "change"

Bob
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Old Jun 01, 2006, 01:46 PM
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Just curious:

let's say a third-party candidate runs and gets 30% or so of the vote/electors.

What happens then ?

Peter
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Old Jun 01, 2006, 02:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by peterp1964
Just curious:

let's say a third-party candidate runs and gets 30% or so of the vote/electors.

What happens then ?

Peter
What if 30% get elected?

I always vote, and this year it will be for anyone else but...an incumbent.
My logic is simple; my previous votes only continued the disconnected process. Not anymore…

Bob
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Old Jun 01, 2006, 02:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by peterp1964
Just curious:

let's say a third-party candidate runs and gets 30% or so of the vote/electors.

What happens then ?

Peter
You would see a change in strategy that would mimic Bill Clinton's first run. It was designed to get enough Electorial College votes while getting 45%ish of the vote (ie carvell). In the second race he was going for 50% of the vote (ie morris). Two different strategies.

If we reach this point, then the main parties will first try to win with the base battle. Push your base up and demoralize the opposition base. You only need 40ish to win in any state so that changes a lot of dynamics.
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Old Jun 01, 2006, 02:09 PM
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I meant the day after the election with a result of roughly 33% each...what
happens then ?

Peter

Quote:
Originally Posted by Indiana_Geoff
You would see a change in strategy that would mimic Bill Clinton's first run. It was designed to get enough Electorial College votes while getting 45%ish of the vote (ie carvell). In the second race he was going for 50% of the vote (ie morris). Two different strategies.

If we reach this point, then the main parties will first try to win with the base battle. Push your base up and demoralize the opposition base. You only need 40ish to win in any state so that changes a lot of dynamics.
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Old Jun 01, 2006, 02:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by peterp1964
I meant the day after the election with a result of roughly 33% each...what happens then???
From wikipedia.org

Quote:
There are currently 538 electoral votes available in each presidential election (100 Senators + 435 Representatives + 3 votes for D.C. = 538 electoral votes). Therefore, candidates must receive a majority of 270 electoral votes to become President and Vice President. In theory, even in a pure two-party race, a candidate could win the election by receiving a very small percentage of all popular votes, if these were distributed in an ideal way (for him/her)—i.e. if they won enough small states by the narrowest possible margin and got no votes at all in the larger states. The fact that there is an even number of electoral votes available since the passing of the 23rd Amendment makes a 269/269 tie conceivable, although none has occurred yet. In that case the election would be thrown into the House of Representatives even though only two candidates received any electoral votes.
In the case of a three party system a 180/180/178 tie could also result. That would then be thrown into the House.
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Old Jun 01, 2006, 02:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by peterp1964
I meant the day after the election with a result of roughly 33% each...what
happens then ?

Peter
Won't happen. Parties are not in a vacuum. They move and shift to capture the vote. One will successfully shift, the other will stumble. But both will run to their base and cobble together enough of a coalition to win. One will succeed, the other will fail.

Perot was the last, best chance for a winning 3rd party Presidency. He personally killed it by acting like a loon. There won't be another chance for a winning 3rd party presidential bid unless a huge issue gets in the way. Immigration might be that issue, but it will take more than it alone.

At best a 3rd party can be a spoiler right now. That is a paradox. If you agree passionately about an issue, you are less likely to "throw away" your vote. If you are not passionate, then why are you going after a 3rd party choice?

Perot rose above both parties for a brief moment. Then for some strange reason he chickened out and destroyed his own hopes.
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Old Jun 01, 2006, 02:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Viper Pilot
From wikipedia.org



In the case of a three party system a 180/180/178 tie could also result. That would then be thrown into the House.
Unless enough delegates defect after the first round of voting. But that could only happen with the 3rd party giving it's votes to the other party who is out of power in the House. It would be less likely for the losing main party (who is out of power in the House) to give it's support to the 3rd party candidate.

Bah, this sounds too much like Europe to me.
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Old Jun 01, 2006, 02:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiana_Geoff
. . . Bah, this sounds too much like Europe to me.

The UK Parliament is very interesting to watch, though. Very entertaining.
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