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Old Oct 14, 2005, 03:15 AM
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Latest on Avian bird flu..

It is now being reported that this strain of the bird flu is mutating into one that can be transferred from human to human..and they are now deeply concerned about migratory birds carrying it to other countries..
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Old Oct 14, 2005, 04:46 AM
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Where are they reporting that it has mutated?
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Old Oct 14, 2005, 05:49 AM
urs
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it has

hi
it has now officialy migrated to Turkey and a second country Rumania I think

urs
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Old Oct 14, 2005, 06:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rumme
It is now being reported that this strain of the bird flu is mutating into one that can be transferred from human to human..and they are now deeply concerned about migratory birds carrying it to other countries..
I have heard no news that it has mutated, allowing bird to human or human to human infection. The longer the outbreak lasts, the greater the chances of it happening, though.
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Old Oct 14, 2005, 06:43 AM
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Quote:
it has now officialy migrated to Turkey and a second country Rumania I think
Ah, so that's what they meant when they said it was found in Turkey!

I guess our Thanksgiving meals are safe after all.
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Old Oct 14, 2005, 06:51 AM
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Nothing mutated. Some pharmalogical "Experts" say that it may be possible, for me it looks like a great way to sell lots of medicine to governments. Of course this medicine will have to be replaced after a while, a good income for the companies. good lobbying.
Best thing is: this virus doesn't actually exist now. It's all about that dangerous bird flu virus that killed 60 people in 3 years. Hm, every year normal flu kills appr.600 people per million, but that's ok, no panic, we're used to that.

Erich
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Old Oct 14, 2005, 09:49 AM
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Agree, it's hit the hype stage. It is serious. It needs to be watched and studied. It's devastating to birds and the poultry industry. It is not killing humans in a fashion that will result in pandemic. There is a very good chance it never will.

But if it does... Well, it's kind of like the killer asteroid problem.

But at the end of the day there would be worse investments to make. It's causing a ramp up in vaccine production, virus research, virus drugs and disease management. All of those things have wider applications and will help humans going forward.
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Old Oct 14, 2005, 10:29 AM
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I read that it is in mutating stage presently..and there has been at least 1 confirmed case of human to human passage..its true so far it is not a human epidemic..lets hope it stays that way..
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Old Oct 21, 2005, 04:27 PM
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A possible "glimmer of hope" . . October 21st CNN (Situation Room) interview with Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt:

"BLITZER: Right now there's no vaccine to prevent bird flu, is that right?

LEAVITT: We do have a vaccine. We don't have the capacity to manufacture it in high enough or fast enough -- to cover everyone.

BLITZER: Are you talking about Tamiflu?

LEAVITT: No, Tamiflu is an anti-viral drug.

BLITZER: That's a treatment if you come down with it.

LEAVITT: I'm talking about vaccines.

BLITZER: Were you talking about -- who has the vaccine?

LEAVITT: Well, actually it was developed by the National Institute of Health. And it has demonstrated the capacity to produce an immune response. It's very good news. And we are now moving into the faze of saying, how can we manufacture it in large enough quantities, fast enough, to be able to make a difference to the entire population.

BLITZER: Has the FDA approved this vaccine?

LEAVITT: No, we're not at that point. But, we have it in clinical trials and it has demonstrated an immune response sufficient that we're optimistic that it would, in fact, protect people if they have it sufficient amounts.

BLITZER: When do the clinical trials end? When will you start producing millions and millions of doses?

LEAVITT: Well, you have identified the dilemma. We don't have the manufacturing capacity in this country to do that. And that's one of the things that we're doing very serious analysis on and one that I believe the president will have a proposal to Congress to resolve."
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Old Oct 21, 2005, 04:44 PM
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This is the danger of a "Little knowlege". Anyone familiar with epidemiology would understand that a "Mutated" strain of avian flu (one that can easily transfer from human to human) would be very unlikely to remain able to easily transfer from bird to bird. The likelyhood of desease cross species infection goes like this:

1)Bird to bird = easy

2)Human to human = easy

3)Bird to human = difficult

4)Human to bird = difficult

5)Bird to bird to human to human = very difficult

6)Bird to human to bird to human = nigh impossible, unless there is a third party common vector, such as fleas, and even then, highly unlikely.

The danger lies in #5, and if that happens, then the virus does not need birds at all.
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Old Oct 21, 2005, 05:03 PM
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Late news tonight has a report that a parrot in quarantine (here in the UK) from South America has died of bird flu!

It doesn't seem to be confirmed yet that it is the strain lethal to humans.

Maybe Thanksgiving isn't so proof after all. I've already got my Christmas bird and I'll take some convincing that it's inedible.

If a visiting sparrow coughs, we might all be in trouble

Come on folks - only 60 people worldwide have been known to die from this - and they were working directly with the birds. Also there's still no evidence whatsoever that person to person is a way to perpetuate the strain. It's a possibility it might change.
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Last edited by Tony Oliver; Oct 21, 2005 at 05:04 PM. Reason: detail change
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Old Oct 21, 2005, 05:21 PM
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Quote:
Agree, it's hit the hype stage.
Well it's not as panicky as last time, when our gov't declared a War on Birds and had hundreds of thousands of birds "cleaned up" (i.e. killed). This time the reaction is more rational... well perhaps they are still figuring out how to blame this on Bush

Don't let this stuff worry you too much. Go ahead and eat that turkey. I reckon the chances of dying of this flu after eating chicken are less than choking to death on one of its bones.
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Old Oct 22, 2005, 06:55 AM
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Its not bird 'flu that is really a problem...what IS a problem is a mutated version of any 'flu that gains a foothold in the human population.

We are overdue for one.

I suspect the WHO and orther organisations are using the bird 'flu scare to actually get some systems in place for rapid development of vaccines and the dissemniation thereof for whatever viral pandemic we may be next subjected to: With antibiotics still viable treament for most bacterial epidemics, viral epidemics remain the single most likely source of a mega death plague type scenario. Possibly genetically engineered by terrorists..or not..

So never mind bird 'flu, but yes, let's definitely get the systems in place for the real epidemic..
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Old Oct 22, 2005, 11:11 AM
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Let us see how fast our "govment-pharmacutical" companies can make a fast buck! Think about this next time you fill your gas tank! Case closed, Mark-
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Old Oct 22, 2005, 11:33 AM
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actually from what ive read..this isnt something you would get from eating a bird/chicken...any fully cooked foul will/should be safe...and as mentioned earlier..its is the various mutated strains..and if this happens on a large scale no matter what country its in..its big trouble...hopefully it wont mutate into a large scale human to human type virus..but its very possible ..all that has to happen is for someone who has a normally contagious flu/virus..to be unfortunate enough to catch this avian strain at the same time {still hasnt happened as far as anyone knows}..then mutation may happen...at which point you have a very dangerous situation of a virus thats impervious to antibiotics {available antibiotics that is} and can easily travel worldwide...with that said..still eat your turkey on Thanksgiving..I sure am...just make sure you dont eat it raw..:}
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