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Old Sep 08, 2012, 06:16 PM
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Most Americans Still Predict Obama Will Win 2012 Election

http://www.gallup.com/poll/156914/am...-election.aspx


We already knew that, didn't we....
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Last edited by Broken Wings; Oct 27, 2013 at 09:50 AM.
Old Sep 08, 2012, 06:27 PM
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I'm glad you'll sleep better tonight.
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Old Sep 08, 2012, 06:32 PM
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Now I know how he got his avatar.
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Old Sep 08, 2012, 07:02 PM
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Old Sep 08, 2012, 07:04 PM
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Don't look at me like that....
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http://news.yahoo.com/obama-widens-l...201203713.html


Yuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuup.
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Old Sep 09, 2012, 03:42 AM
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...but, but, but...that is quite a different result than the recent LTUP poll with a very similar question. What gives?
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Old Sep 09, 2012, 04:19 AM
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it could have been a true patriot in the whit house instead it will Obama
can you say


We Paulbots told ya so.enjoy your loss GoP.
Mitt is Obama is mitt. we will never again vote for you lesser of 2 evils.
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Old Sep 09, 2012, 07:55 AM
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"...with a random sample of 1,033 adults..."

1,033 adults is 'most Americans'?
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Old Sep 09, 2012, 08:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by QQuestor View Post
it could have been a true patriot in the whit house instead it will Obama
can you say


We Paulbots told ya so.enjoy your loss GoP.
Mitt is Obama is mitt. we will never again vote for you lesser of 2 evils.
We never knew....probably a plant for the Kenyan is American Klan.
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Old Sep 09, 2012, 08:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by micro_builder View Post
"...with a random sample of 1,033 adults..."

1,033 adults is 'most Americans'?
A random sample of 1,033* adults is a decent sample size, giving a margin of error of something approaching the order of +-3%. at the 95% confidence level. Close enough for jazz and the sort of sample level that lots of pollsters aim for.

*1067 individuals =3% Margin of error@95% confidence level for a US population of ca 300 million.
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Old Sep 09, 2012, 08:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leccyflyer View Post
A random sample of 1,033* adults is a decent sample size, giving a margin of error of something approaching the order of +-3%. at the 95% confidence level. Close enough for jazz and the sort of sample level that lots of pollsters aim for.

*1067 individuals =3% Margin of error@95% confidence level for a US population of ca 300 million.
Random is always the key world as for reliability of predictions. Skewed samples makes for skewed results. Which is why multiples are used to determine which samples tend to be biases.
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Old Sep 09, 2012, 08:20 AM
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Random is always the key world as for reliability of predictions. Skewed samples makes for skewed results. Which is why multiples are used to determine which samples tend to be biases.
Yes Lyle, and, given that sampling and polling is the stock in trade of the companies and organisations that do it professionally, they know a thing or two about how to conduct such polls.

Lemme guess though, you believe in the results of LTUP polls when they suit, but discount the results of other polls when they do not.
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Old Sep 09, 2012, 08:38 AM
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Yup, that pretty much sums it up.
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Old Sep 09, 2012, 09:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leccyflyer View Post
A random sample of 1,033* adults is a decent sample size, giving a margin of error of something approaching the order of +-3%. at the 95% confidence level. Close enough for jazz and the sort of sample level that lots of pollsters aim for.

*1067 individuals =3% Margin of error@95% confidence level for a US population of ca 300 million.
Yes, but still 1033 opinions is certainly not the same as 300 million opinions, no matter margins of error or confidence levels. Calling that "most Americans" seems a bit hopefully at best.

I've come to dislike polls, they can be so easily skewed to suit an agenda (not saying this one is, just in general), and they usually seem to be used as the broadest paint brushes I've ever seen.
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Old Sep 09, 2012, 09:45 AM
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did a reversed Immelman..once.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by micro_builder View Post
yes, but still 1033 opinions is certainly not the same as 300 million opinions, no matter margins of error or confidence levels. Calling that "most americans" seems a bit hopefully at best.

I've come to dislike polls, they can be so easily skewed to suit an agenda (not saying this one is, just in general), and they usually seem to be used as the broadest paint brushes i've ever seen.
+100
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