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Old Oct 10, 2012, 07:37 PM
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Broken Wings's Avatar
United States, FL, Cocoa
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The presidential predictor sharpens

Today I present the short-term presidential prediction. Both the red and yellow ranges are noticeably more precise than the long-term prediction. This will be updated daily until the election.


This prediction is based on the amount that the Meta-Margin is likely to shift over short periods of time, emphasizing the limits set by the long-range prediction. As of today, the predicted “strike zone” is 314-347 EV and the November Obama re-elect probability is 97%.

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/0...ial-predictor/

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Last edited by Broken Wings; Oct 27, 2013 at 11:27 AM.
Old Oct 10, 2012, 08:02 PM
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Go ahead, take a look. Math can be very soothing.
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Old Oct 10, 2012, 08:03 PM
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BE77 Pilot's Avatar
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I think you are going to be very surprised come November.
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Old Oct 10, 2012, 08:05 PM
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North Texas
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Originally Posted by Broken Wings View Post
Go ahead, take a look. Math can be very soothing.
That's the problem with today's youth. They look at a graph and think that they understand Math.
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Old Oct 10, 2012, 08:10 PM
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Originally Posted by BE77 Pilot View Post
I think you are going to be very surprised come November.
Check out the "How’d we do?"sections. You're going to hate reading it.
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Old Oct 10, 2012, 08:15 PM
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United States, OK, Moore
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The fact of the matter is, at this point, NOBODY knows with certainty how it's going to turn out. I predict, however, some of the worst behavior imaginable from the left if Romney wins.
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Old Oct 10, 2012, 08:16 PM
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Originally Posted by LVsoaring View Post
The fact of the matter is, at this point, NOBODY knows with certainty how it's going to turn out. I predict, however, some of the worst behavior imaginable from the left if Romney wins.
True dat.
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Old Oct 10, 2012, 08:17 PM
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Originally Posted by LVsoaring View Post
The fact of the matter is, at this point, NOBODY knows with certainty how it's going to turn out. I predict, however, some of the worst behavior imaginable from the left if Romney wins.

For a scientist, a moment of truth for a hypothesis is the experiment. In this case the “experiment” is the election. Here’s a quick run-through comparing our predictions with outcomes so far. Performance is extremely good. As was the case in 2004 and 2006, the results are consistent with the idea that relatively pure polling data can predict outcomes accurately. That’s n=3 elections.

The Electoral College

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/1...uation-part-2/
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Old Oct 10, 2012, 08:57 PM
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Pepperell, MA, USA
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Originally Posted by Broken Wings View Post
Check out the "How’d we do?"sections. You're going to hate reading it.
I'm still looking for an answer to my question to you in the Chicken or Hawk thread. Maybe you missed it. How were you "spared" from military service, given your age and the timeframe? Did you choose not to enlist?
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Old Oct 10, 2012, 09:57 PM
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Houston Ellington, Texas, United States
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Originally Posted by Tim Jonas View Post
I'm still looking for an answer to my question to you in the Chicken or Hawk thread. Maybe you missed it. How were you "spared" from military service, given your age and the timeframe? Did you choose not to enlist?
He's not going to answer. He can't .... Doing so would require admitting his own hypocrisy.
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Old Oct 10, 2012, 10:07 PM
It's 5 O'clock Somewhere
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Dayton, OH
Joined Feb 2006
418 Posts
Keep clinging to that hope. Your team has had a terrible week.
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Old Oct 10, 2012, 10:18 PM
Холодная война все еще здесь.
RCWorks's Avatar
Joined Aug 2003
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Originally Posted by RumRunner_1492 View Post
Keep clinging to that hope. Your team has had a terrible week.
They have crying time coming... Obummer has to stand up to being disiplined by Mit 2 more times in public.
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Old Oct 10, 2012, 11:17 PM
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United States, TX, Weatherford
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Originally Posted by RCWorks View Post
They have crying time coming... Obummer has to stand up to being disiplined by Mit 2 more times in public.
True DAT!!!
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Old Oct 11, 2012, 05:46 AM
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United Kingdom
Joined Feb 2005
1,854 Posts
Romney won't win - he's had a bump and you know what they say

Pride comes before a fall

He's used up all his ammo by flipping - now he's got to flip back again!
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Old Oct 11, 2012, 06:12 AM
Pants Up, Don't Loot!
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United States, VA, Virginia Beach
Joined Jun 2005
1,769 Posts
I would advise having plenty of provisions come November 7th - I sense a storm coming.
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