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Old Oct 27, 2004, 03:14 AM
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Compare 2000 polls and result

Here is a link to the 2000 polls, so take from it what you will. tt

http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/polls-2000.html
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Old Oct 28, 2004, 07:37 AM
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What I take from it is that undecideds break for the challenger bigtime.

The Presidential race is tightening. This is Bush's worst nightmare. If you allocate undecideds based on past history a strong Kerry victory is looming; a landslide is possible.

This is the best electoral college link I have found. It was featured in the WSJ and on the today show this week:
http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

Also worth looking at: http://www.electoral-vote.com
Biased for Bush but interesting: http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

I am now more confident than ever of a decisive Kerry win.
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Last edited by 4 Scale; Oct 28, 2004 at 07:41 AM.
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Old Oct 28, 2004, 10:24 AM
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I love that first link where the Prof assumes that ALL undecided voters will swing for Kerry. What a hoot. It's a good thing that site isn't "biased".

I'm also delighted that you are so confident of a Kerry win. Now if only you could send some of that confidence over to the Democratic Campaign Headquarters, you might make someone feel better.... for a few days, anyway.

Highflight

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greg Smith
What I take from it is that undecideds break for the challenger bigtime.

The Presidential race is tightening. This is Bush's worst nightmare. If you allocate undecideds based on past history a strong Kerry victory is looming; a landslide is possible.

This is the best electoral college link I have found. It was featured in the WSJ and on the today show this week:
http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

Also worth looking at: http://www.electoral-vote.com
Biased for Bush but interesting: http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

I am now more confident than ever of a decisive Kerry win.
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Old Oct 29, 2004, 08:05 AM
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If you had read the link thoroughly you'd see he does not put all undecides with Kerry.

I'll be working on Kerry's campaign this weekend and will be sure to tell them of the polling analysis.

Just trying to apply a little analysis to the matter, instead of screeching "my guy is great, your guy is bad, therefore my guy will win".

If I thought Bush would win I'd be quiet.
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Old Oct 31, 2004, 12:06 PM
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With less than 48 hours left, all three of the sites linked above predict a Kerry victory.

Professor Wang commented to Fox yester day that he thought Kerry would get over 300 electoral votes. I agree. Not a landslide but still a strong win.

My own analysis says that as long as Kerry is within 2-4% on popular vote per polls, he will win based on undecideds and turnout differential. He is doing much better than that.

Can't wait for the election. It won't be that close and we should know it's Kerry by midnight.
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Old Oct 31, 2004, 02:59 PM
Go get them Meg!
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Sure, sure.

How much credability can a guy named "Wang" really have? I bet you can't even say it without smiling.
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Old Oct 31, 2004, 03:04 PM
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The poles said the same thing here in California with the recall and we all know who took it hands down!
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Old Oct 31, 2004, 03:23 PM
Go get them Meg!
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Actually, IIRC, Davis' approval rating and most of the polls I read made the Davis recall appear to be a slam dunk.

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline...rs/RLS2095.pdf
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Old Oct 31, 2004, 03:53 PM
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Come on Schwarzenegger and Bustemonte!
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Old Oct 31, 2004, 03:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lrsudog
Actually, IIRC, Davis' approval rating and most of the polls I read made the Davis recall appear to be a slam dunk.
That is my recollection also.....
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Old Oct 31, 2004, 04:00 PM
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Don't you have anything closer to the election?
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Old Oct 31, 2004, 04:13 PM
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http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline...r-Rebuttal.pdf
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Old Oct 31, 2004, 04:43 PM
Go get them Meg!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patrickegan
Don't you have anything closer to the election?


I'm sorry but if 3 days before the recall election isn't close enough...


Regardless, I was only demonstrating that the polls showed Davis as losing his job, which is in fact what happened. There was little doubt, as you seemed to imply earlier.


Not to say that polls are valid prognosticators of actual election results.
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Old Nov 01, 2004, 08:06 AM
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'Dog, I don't understand your problem with Dr. Wang's name. His associate,
Prof. Hung Lo also does not understand.

Wang and one of the other polls predict victory for Kerry this morning. The pro-Bush poll does not.

Kerry's gonna get over 300 electoral votes
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Old Nov 01, 2004, 06:19 PM
Go get them Meg!
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Would that be prof. Wun Hung Lo?


I know that dude...
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