Oct 10, 2012, 07:37 PM
Registered User
United States, FL, Cocoa
Joined Jan 2006
1,623 Posts
Discussion
The presidential predictor sharpens

Today I present the short-term presidential prediction. Both the red and yellow ranges are noticeably more precise than the long-term prediction. This will be updated daily until the election.

This prediction is based on the amount that the Meta-Margin is likely to shift over short periods of time, emphasizing the limits set by the long-range prediction. As of today, the predicted “strike zone” is 314-347 EV and the November Obama re-elect probability is 97%.

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/0...ial-predictor/

# Images

Last edited by Broken Wings; Oct 27, 2013 at 11:27 AM.
 Oct 10, 2012, 08:02 PM Registered User United States, FL, Cocoa Joined Jan 2006 1,623 Posts Go ahead, take a look. Math can be very soothing.
 Oct 10, 2012, 08:03 PM Conforming Joined May 2010 442 Posts I think you are going to be very surprised come November.
Oct 10, 2012, 08:05 PM
Figure Nine Champ
North Texas
Joined Nov 2002
1,337 Posts
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Broken Wings Go ahead, take a look. Math can be very soothing.
That's the problem with today's youth. They look at a graph and think that they understand Math.
Oct 10, 2012, 08:10 PM
Registered User
United States, FL, Cocoa
Joined Jan 2006
1,623 Posts
Quote:
 Originally Posted by BE77 Pilot I think you are going to be very surprised come November.
Check out the "How’d we do?"sections. You're going to hate reading it.
 Oct 10, 2012, 08:15 PM Unrepentant Paragon addict United States, OK, Moore Joined Jan 2006 3,148 Posts The fact of the matter is, at this point, NOBODY knows with certainty how it's going to turn out. I predict, however, some of the worst behavior imaginable from the left if Romney wins.
Oct 10, 2012, 08:16 PM
Conforming
Joined May 2010
442 Posts
Quote:
 Originally Posted by LVsoaring The fact of the matter is, at this point, NOBODY knows with certainty how it's going to turn out. I predict, however, some of the worst behavior imaginable from the left if Romney wins.
True dat.
Oct 10, 2012, 08:17 PM
Registered User
United States, FL, Cocoa
Joined Jan 2006
1,623 Posts
Quote:
 Originally Posted by LVsoaring The fact of the matter is, at this point, NOBODY knows with certainty how it's going to turn out. I predict, however, some of the worst behavior imaginable from the left if Romney wins.

For a scientist, a moment of truth for a hypothesis is the experiment. In this case the “experiment” is the election. Here’s a quick run-through comparing our predictions with outcomes so far. Performance is extremely good. As was the case in 2004 and 2006, the results are consistent with the idea that relatively pure polling data can predict outcomes accurately. That’s n=3 elections.

The Electoral College

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/1...uation-part-2/
Oct 10, 2012, 08:57 PM
Mr Mootsie
Pepperell, MA, USA
Joined Jan 2001
2,591 Posts
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Broken Wings Check out the "How’d we do?"sections. You're going to hate reading it.
I'm still looking for an answer to my question to you in the Chicken or Hawk thread. Maybe you missed it. How were you "spared" from military service, given your age and the timeframe? Did you choose not to enlist?
Oct 10, 2012, 09:57 PM
Registered User
Houston Ellington, Texas, United States
Joined Feb 2001
312 Posts
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Tim Jonas I'm still looking for an answer to my question to you in the Chicken or Hawk thread. Maybe you missed it. How were you "spared" from military service, given your age and the timeframe? Did you choose not to enlist?
He's not going to answer. He can't .... Doing so would require admitting his own hypocrisy.
 Oct 10, 2012, 10:07 PM It's 5 O'clock Somewhere Dayton, OH Joined Feb 2006 418 Posts Keep clinging to that hope. Your team has had a terrible week.
Oct 10, 2012, 10:18 PM
Machine Accessories.
Joined Aug 2003
2,008 Posts
Quote:
 Originally Posted by RumRunner_1492 Keep clinging to that hope. Your team has had a terrible week.
They have crying time coming... Obummer has to stand up to being disiplined by Mit 2 more times in public.
Latest blog entry: Testing a new market.
Oct 10, 2012, 11:17 PM
Hot Dawg Glider Pilot
United States, TX, Weatherford
Joined Nov 2002
8,060 Posts
Quote:
 Originally Posted by RCWorks They have crying time coming... Obummer has to stand up to being disiplined by Mit 2 more times in public.
True DAT!!!
 Oct 11, 2012, 05:46 AM Registered User United Kingdom Joined Feb 2005 1,871 Posts Romney won't win - he's had a bump and you know what they say Pride comes before a fall He's used up all his ammo by flipping - now he's got to flip back again!
 Oct 11, 2012, 06:12 AM "It ain't over'til it's over." United States, VA, Virginia Beach Joined Jun 2005 1,777 Posts I would advise having plenty of provisions come November 7th - I sense a storm coming.