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Old Feb 27, 2012, 11:25 PM
Pompano Hill Flyers
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Miami Lakes, Florida, USA
Joined Mar 2003
8,488 Posts
A Probability Puzzle

I have four plugs that go to my receiver from my wing. They are left aileron, left flap, right flap, and right aileron. They aren't labeled, so what is the probability that I'll get them all correct if I just guess?
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Old Feb 28, 2012, 02:14 AM
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Las Cruces, New Mexico, United States
Joined Jun 2002
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1/4 x 1/3 x 1/2 x 1 or about 4% at 1 in 24...
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Old Feb 28, 2012, 08:11 AM
Lear,Gulfstream,Waco pilot
Hazlehurst GA
Joined Jan 2001
390 Posts
That depends...if you only have 30 minutes to fly,and can plug in/check all four leads in one minute, there is a 0% chance that you will have more than 6 minutes to fly....
On the other hand,if you are at home just playing around, you will get it right the first time.
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Old Mar 05, 2012, 02:06 PM
Build it, don't buy it
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Calgary, AB, Canada
Joined Apr 2008
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Originally Posted by JimNM View Post
1/4 x 1/3 x 1/2 x 1 or about 4% at 1 in 24...
No that's not right: 1/4! = 1/(4X3X2X1)=1/24 = 1 in 24, or about 4%, wait a minute,why does that sound familiar?

Just thought I'd add another method, no fractions needed.

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Old Mar 09, 2012, 10:52 PM
Shore Huckin'
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Joined Aug 2010
2,706 Posts
Yup, 1 in 24. Good show. I got the same thing.
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