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Old Nov 10, 2012, 02:37 PM
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Originally Posted by CrazyLittle View Post
I'm sure a few LTUP conservatives will roll their eyes at this, but I don't think Obama's win on Tuesday was a shellacking. It was a huge victory over the states, and it was a very close election among the popular vote, and that's because the GOP's Southern Strategy is very effective at courting the white vote in the south. Just like voting for Obama in California is a "wasted vote," so was voting for Romney in the deep red state. Obama's big territory win was really just proof of a better GOTV strategy in the states that actually mattered. Remember that Romney's last ad buys at the end of the campaign were flooding the media market in PA during the last week. That's wasted money. It's money that should have been spent in Ohio months ago in preparation... but no, pretty much all of Romney's campaign seemed to be reactionary and ill-planned.

The problem with running up the popular vote like that for the GOP is that they can't "flip flop" as easily as Romney did and disavow all the hatred and racism and bigotry. If they try to court the minority vote then they're going to lose their largest monolithic voting block: Southern whites. And quite frankly there isn't a demographic that the GOP could divide and peel off to gain a victory without jeopardizing the Southern white vote.

Yeah, unfortunately for the GOP, they've pushed themselves so far off to the right that I don't see any path where they could bring back the center voters, much less any minority. Like I said, they would have to shake down everything in order to re-organize.

Quote from another thread:

So yeah maybe I'm "stuck in the past" but history is the best predictor of the future.
I agree. Look up Father Couglin, although you are probably familiar with the name. Joseph McCarthy is another one to look up.

I think you misunderstand the size of the racists aspects of the Republican party. Sure there are racists in it (they're in the Democrat party too), but they are a small minority of the party, even in the south. Most of the hatred and bigotry we've been experiencing is a response to the economic hardships we've been going through, and the discomfort they have brought. As the economy improves, their divisive message will have less and less traction. In this aspect the popularity of Fox news exactly matches that of Father Coughlin, which is why I used him as a metaphor. They rise up out of the fear of a massive economic hardship, they swell to large ranks, and then as things improves they shrink back down to the size of insignificance.

When you're afraid you're going to lose your home, a lot of people are happy to find a scapegoat, but when things are going well that message is much harder to sell. For most people that is. Remember, this is the country that flirted with Father Coughlin, but was still able to keep the root of Fascism from sprouting. Rather than follow his bigoted message most Americans took up their arms and attacked his fellow bigots in Europe and Asia.

I think that is a lesson of history worthy of study.
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